RGE Monitor – Weekly Roundup
Check
out all the great contributions that were published during the past week on
RGE’s Nouriel Roubini’s
Global EconoMonitor, RGE
Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Finance & Markets
Monitor, Peterson
Institute for International Economics Monitor, Global Macro EconoMonitor,
U.S. EconoMonitor, Emerging Markets
Monitor, Asia EconoMonitor,
Latin America EconoMonitor
and Europe EconoMonitor.
On
Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor, Nouriel provides
detailed analysis on how the weakness of the dollar along with near-zero
interest rates and quantitative easing are fueling a correlated bubble across global
asset classes, which is getting bigger by the day. Nouriel provides a number of reasons for why
and how these carry trades can unravel and cautions policy makers that the
bigger the bubble the bigger the crash.
Please read Mother
of all Carry Trades Faces an Inevitable Bust.
Don’t
miss Nouriel’s CNBC
Interview Discussing Carry Trades and Asset Bubbles.
On
the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Arpitha Bykere and Elisa
Parisi-Capone analyze the administration’s policies on regulatory reform,
housing sector programs and fiscal stimulus. They also highlight the challenges
for President Obama going forward, including addressing the fiscal deficit and
entitlement burden and passing the healthcare legislation. Please read One
Year after Obama’s Election: Regulatory and Fiscal Challenges.
In
Too-Big-To-Fail:
Regulatory Reforms of Systemically Important Institutions, Elisa
Parisi-Capone considers the initiatives currently on the table to deal with the
too-big-to-fail problem. The options range from break-up—which is the one
favored by Nouriel
Roubini—to stricter regulation and setting the right incentives. While the
debate goes on among regulators and academics, the European Competition
authority has taken action and ordered the divestment of significant parts of
ING, RBS and Lloyds since their bailout packages were deemed to have given them
an unfair advantage under State Aid rules.
In
Nigerian
Oil: Delta Ceasefire, Political Bottlenecks, Lee Hudson Teslik examines
what the Delta peace initiative and Nigeria’s push for oil industry regulatory
reform will mean for Nigerian output and for international oil companies
operating in the country.
On
the Finance & Markets Monitor, Rick
Bookstaber debates whether innovation promotes economic growth and considers
the impact of financial innovation over the past 10-15 years arguing that “just
because we are able to take some cash flow and turn it into an instrument
doesn’t mean we should.” Please read Does
Financial Innovation Promote Economic Growth?
In
Please,
Listen to the Lady! Daniel Alpert notes that Sheila Bair, Chairwoman of the
FDIC, continues to prove that she has the best interest of the country and the
banking system at heart as she advocates for important reforms like funding the
proposed resolution fund during fat times.
In
How
Goldman Bet on a Housing Crash, Barry Ritholtz points out the obvious
conflicts of interest in the practice of financial companies that decide to
market a financial product, which they consider to be a loser, to unsuspecting
customers without sharing their real opinion of the product. But is it criminal?
Also
on the Finance & Markets Monitor:
The
Cruel Basic Mathethematics of Losses by Barry Ritholtz
Uh-Oh:
Economists Say Recovery, Market Gains Solid by Barry Ritholtz
Wood
Warns of Correction, Says “Key Variable in the West is Government Policy”
by Edward Harrison
The
Return of Mixed Results by James Picerno
On
the Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, Michael
Mussa, a former student and professor at the University of Chicago, sits down
with Steve Weisman and assesses the influence – for good and for ill – of
economics as espoused at the University of Chicago. Please read Is
the “Chicago School” to Blame in the Economic Crisis?
In
Latvia,
Lithuania, and the IMF, Anders Aslund compares how the financial crisis has
been handled by these countries, which appear to be facing very similar
conundrums.
On
the Global Macro EconoMonitor, Mark Thoma
presents a piece by Mikhail Gorbachev who claims that the global crisis was
necessary to recognize the organic defects of the present model of western
development, which he believes was imposed on the rest of the world as the only
one possible, and pushes for drastic democratic reform. Thoma adds that the failure of the
market-based development model as well as the success of countries with
different development models like China has undermined the faith in traditional
market-based development strategies. See
The
Berlin Wall Had to Fall, But Today’s World is No Fairer.
In
Do
Smart, Hard-Working People Deserve to Make More Money? James Kwak
recognizes that financial success often depends on luck and chance and questions
why the unlucky deserve less.
In
Sustainable
Growth? Tim Duy argues that while the GDP report confirms that the
recession has come to an end, the drivers of the boost are potentially
unsustainable, and thus he isn’t breathing easy yet.
In
The
Hubris of Economics, Barry Ritholtz provides a rational look at some of the
problems with the field of economics.
On
the U.S. EconoMonitor, Robert Reich points out that if the goal is
to help the most Americans in a time of need, perhaps our priorities need to be
refocused. Read Health
Care Reform is Critically Important, But Getting Americans Back to Work is More
So.
In
Another
Crack in Republic’s Foundations: Not the Size of the Debt, But When it’s Due,
Fabius Maximus shrewdly explains the
different scenarios that are possible with regards to short-term and long-term
bonds, and how the former makes the solvency of the government that much more
vulnerable.
In
Roubini
Predicts “Mother of All Carry Trade Unwinds”, Yves Smith pushes the
conversation on how the weak dollar is the funding currency for risky carry
trades that are blowing asset bubbles.
Also
on the U.S. EconoMonitor:
Bullish
Data, Recoveries, Crashes and the Psychology of Forecasting Redux by Edward
Harrison
Five
Myths About Our Land of Opportunity by Mark Thoma
On
Revisions and on Conditioning by Menzie Chinn
Tax
Cuts and Recoveries by Mark Thoma
How
Obama Can Convince Congress to Enact a Larger Stimulus, and Why He Must by
Robert Reich
On
the Emerging Markets Monitor, Michael
Pettis is still negative about global imbalances despite positive GDP numbers
coming out of the U.S. because he sees the drivers of growth to be
unsustainable. He argues that rebalancing
is going to happen one way or another, but pushes for less Chinese investment
in infrastructure and more distribution of wealth to Chinese households,
because it is consumption growth that powers economies over the long term. Please read What
Rebalancing of Chinese and American Consumption?
On
the Asia EconoMonitor, Anoop Singh examines how it is that Asia has
rebounded sooner and more strongly than the rest of the globe from the economic
slump when the region is so heavily dependent on exports for its growth. See The
Puzzle of Asia’s Rapid Rebound.
In
Looking
back at Indira Gandhi, Ajay Shah presents a piece that takes a look at
recent history and provides 5 lessons for today’s Congress in India.
On
the Europe EconoMonitor, Simon Johnson reports that pressure from
the EU and voices within the Bank of England have pushed the government to
begin a process to restructure the banking system. See Britain
To Break Up Biggest Banks.
In
Trouble
in Ireland as Fitch Cuts Debt Two Notches to AA- and Deficits Soar, as the
news gets progressively worse out of Ireland, Edward Harrison asks again
whether Ireland is the next Iceland.
