When will the bear market end?
According to Alan R. Shaw, the technical analyst who retired from Citigroup Inc. after 45 years, US stocks are not likely to see a turn-around until 2018. From BusinessWeek…
“I don’t think the bear market that started in 2000 has run its course yet,” Shaw said in an interview in New York. In the last report he authored for Citigroup (C) in 2004, Shaw said the Dow Jones Industrial Average might struggle to remain above 10,000 for up to 20 years, “and I see no reason to change it five years later. My mindset continues to be very cautious.”
Shaw’s forecast was based on how long it took the Dow average to sustain advances above the 100 level from 1902 to 1927, and its struggle to exceed 1,000 from 1960 to 1985.
“It’s too early for another big bull market, period,” said Shaw, who from 1993 through 1999 was the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s annual poll. Technical analysts base predictions on price and volume chart patterns.
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